Skip to main content

tv   On the Move  Bloomberg  April 4, 2016 2:30am-4:01am EDT

2:30 am
i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. guy: welcome to on the move. 7:30 a.m. here in london. we are counting you down to the european open. the pair of us are watching these things this morning, will berlin blink on debt relief for greece. elite relief -- elite report -- a leaked report heightens tensions between the imf and greece. saudi arabia backed away from a
2:31 am
supply --. we speak to the banks ceo, andrew kostin at 8:20 a.m. that interview is coming up. greece is back on the agenda. i'm really surprised. can greece move on without debt anief and since we are at important junction with immigration how does this impact the debt relief issue. hans: that brings us back to berlin. decide theymerkel can give a little bit of debt forgiveness? and then work on something regarding greek refugees. it seems like a much bigger story. when of the interesting aspects of this coverage is that they are so far apart on reforms --
2:32 am
pension records, tax reforms. they really have a long way to go. guy: the fact that the imf and the leaked document -- it firmly believes that debt relief is critical. that is right out of the imf playbook. change at a bunch of factors and one of them is normally eight that really for restructuring. that has not happened this time for greece. the imf is going back to what it does best. intransigence from europe. we are half an hour away, less from the european open. let us update everyone on where we stand. what you will see this morning is a fairly anemic story. not much action in terms of price volatility this might. we have seen a fairly quiet session in asia. it looks like we will see a similar story here in europe at
2:33 am
the get-go of trade in about 27 minutes time. hans: a risk off sentiment. the oil story is different. we have the interview with the saudi arabian deputy crown prince. brent is almost below $38, almost down more than 1%. topix is up in japan. it looks like dollar-yet, we are seeing much stronger dollar. all the weight -- skews me all the way down to 1.11. the 10 year, not trading. no one was really concerned about the jobs report. still seeing a rally in treasuries. let us move on to what we are seeing outside of business. leaks from a panama law firm that creates shell companies. individualsdwide
2:34 am
have used banks and shadow companies to hide their france -- finances. least $2rt says at billion in transactions involve people in companies allegedly tied to russian president vladimir putin. japanese companies have cut their forecast for inflation for the next five years indicating even after adopting a negative rate policy the bank of japan is struggling to persuade businesses that sustained price gains will take hold. companies project 1.2% of inflation at this time in five years down from 1.4% estimated in december. brussels airport is accelerating activity day after restarting services yesterday. those flights resume to new york city, africa, and at least six major european cities in the wake of last month terror attacks. tightened security in a checking area will restrict outbound flights to 800 passengers an
2:35 am
hour. less than 20% of its usual activity. you can find more stories on bloomberg. let us give back to the greece story. talks between the greek government and its creditors are due to start again in athens today following the leaking of a report suggesting that imf officials suggested talking to -- talkingt giving to germany about giving greece more debt relief. in some ways, the definition of a political gaffe is when it's someone says something publicly that everyone knows privately. from whats different we publicly know to be the imf's position? reporter: it doesn't make us any wiser. we always knew the imf was in
2:36 am
favor of debt with the -- debt relief for greece. in favor of the greek government capping its spending. nothing new here. --t is new is that greece greece has been unpredictable once again. leakedrned the transcript into official dialogue. the imf is the only ally that greece has and tsipras has with debt relief. anti-imf- adopting an rhetoric has more to do with greek politics than anything else. guy: is it just domestic party politics at its worst? will this move the story forward? keepser: if greece adopting this stance and continues to be hard on the imf
2:37 am
-- it is hard for the european members to pass debt relief through their parliament. away, that iss another 35 billion burden for europe. it is hard for the europeans to pass this in their own parliaments. unless greece does back down, it it will get messy. we are hours away from the first meeting in the renegotiations between the imf and greece. we are all booking tickets. thank you indeed. in an officer. good morning james. do you worry that this is another risk we face this summer? where brexit and a lot of politics to think about more globally across the world.
2:38 am
this could be kicked further down the road if everyone wanted this to happen. the harsh reality is that greece will not pay off the huge debts. at some point, there will have to be debt forgiveness. the key issue is how many reforms will greece genuinely have to push through? guy: when you look at what needs to happen next, you talk about debt relief -- can the greek economy move on until it has debt relief? james: there are three components. at what point might the capital --into the future? if not, the second issue is can you do it all together? guy: there does seem to be an
2:39 am
issue of sentiment. you wonder whether greece weather fresh money or real money, people wanting to make investments into greece will actually happen until you see something happen on this large debt pile. you can change the situation but will sentiments change? james: i fully agree that not many will want to invest into the greek economy. guy: -- hans: i will do my best guy johnson and bring it back to grexit. when you look at u.k. voters and they see another round of negative headlines from berlin and greece --does this help the brexit case? is receivingk it quite a lot of sentiment help. what will motivate british to
2:40 am
vote in which way? there is so much uncertainty about what brexit would mean. i would suggest that a large number of british people -- you are not made a convincing case about what life would look like after brexit. it is a big leap in the dark so we will stay. my expectation is that britain will stay within the eu. guy: still much to talk about. up next, we will talk foreign exchange. a great chart, coming up next. ♪
2:41 am
2:42 am
2:43 am
guy: welcome back. i'm guy johnson. let us get you a bloomberg business flash. refused tory has roll out a temporary nationalization of british operation.
2:44 am
stressed he does not see nationalization as the answer and is confident he can find a buyer. naturalizationk is a solution to this. even for a few weeks. having said that, i also don't think it would be prudent to rule anything out. nationalization is really right. feel lot of reasons, i do there will be enough time to find the right buyer working with the government and able to take it forward. ran -- orange has abandoned its effort to purchase bouygues. it said key sticking point included guarantees for the employees as a level at stake in orange. goldman sachs says it is time to
2:45 am
sell asian currencies after its best rally in more than seven years. strategists predicted the emerging market recovery said currencies will resume their declined with further easing in china and japan. that is your bloomberg business flash. let us talk about the dollar. getting it right seems to be a pivotal thing you have to do in order to make your portfolio worth. let me show you an interesting chart. it is about the dollar and its history and rallies. let me take you all the way to the far side of the charge. this is when paul volcker was named chairman. we see a 67 month dollar rally. the strong dollar policy. we remember it well. 81 month rally for the dollar. the current rally which started down here.
2:46 am
only 57 months long. let us bring back in james. getting the dollar right is pivotal right now. the dollar reasserts the rally. if it resumes, how does it change the investment outlook? up, it is badoes news for more markets. it will make it difficult for the emerging economy to do well. burden.e interest rate i am not sharing your views. i think the dollar on a trench basis will move sideways and downwards. i say that is colluding the past. one realistically once to buy the pound right now. the dollar is relatively friendless. guy: why?
2:47 am
is going further into negative territory. it is not working particularly well. the ecb started buying even more. inhave qe and negative rates two of the world's biggest banks. james: the dollar is overrun. many people now want to have more diversified portfolios. china, they are exporting $1.2 trillion worth of capital in order to build better diversified portfolios. the premise that some of this money is globally accreting into the dollar will be reallocated i find to be a compelling story. -- every timehart a currency moves up there comes a stretch point in the reorganization. i think we are close to reorganization of the policy
2:48 am
agenda. hans: i want to shift it more. the rally in asian currencies. the end of march was the high point. are you on the page? do you think asian currencies have sputtered out? james: i would be discriminating about what is in the asian currency basket. the yen strength should be behind it. when is the big trades for the second half of the year is whether the chinese seek a significant devaluation against the yen. china will think logically about how it will engineer a better economic story in the second half. it is been damaged materially by the relative weakness of the yen. a significant to build -- devaluation of the r&b relative to the yen will be detrimental
2:49 am
to the japanese economy. we may get 10 years of no growth from japan after two lost decades. big: that would be another blow to abenomics. we will get your insights further. we are minutes away from the open. battle of the the charts and james, you get to choose the winner. ♪
2:50 am
2:51 am
2:52 am
liveyou're looking at
2:53 am
pictures of the city of london. looks like we will see a flat open. the battle of the charts. hans nichols versus guy johnson. i am going to start this morning. this is a testimony to the three years of kuroda's bazooka firing inetary policy that has been some ways leading the world in terms of where we go. i bring you this chart because -- the white line here is central-bank balancing sheet gdp. the japanese story is going up. are they bazookas or p shooters? still to be deserving -- determinant. ed. highlights the difference between what is being tried in japan and the inter---
2:54 am
intersecting of whether the data is doing anything. hans: regardless of who james hicks, both charts showed japan as the loser. looking at the corporate side of abenomics very overnight lending. between banks. is at a record low. it starts right here. the white line is when japan announces some negative rates for banks. it freezes. the back and forth. what is interesting is that we see the negative rate -- zero bound right here. below that coming even with that staying negative and consistent, you're seeing corporate lending overnight loans between banks continue to decline. showing we have more negativity around the order for japan. again, they are both stories lookseither way japan like the loser when we unveil the charts. james, who wins this morning?
2:55 am
james: hence, the winner -- hans, the winner is you. talking to guy at the break, the problems that mr. kuroda faces. he has been engaged in a price keeping operation for the japanese government bond market long before the announcement of want to date of easing. atcannot continue with qe the rate he has said he will because there is not enough left to buy. that underscores the challenge that japan faces in the economy. your chart demonstrates the current challenge of the banking system. that all underscores the probability that we will now get 10 years of no growth and no inflation out of japan. guy: what about the equity market in the 10 years? james: the financials look at well placed.
2:56 am
the post office business is well-placed. thank you very much. james will stay with us. we are talking steel at the top of the program. and we will be talking with andrew kostin. ♪
2:57 am
2:58 am
2:59 am
guy: good morning. you are watching "on the move." i am guy johnson, alongside hans nichols. -what areever log we watching? hans: creditors resume talks while tensions tighten between the imf and the german government. are we heading for another summer crisis? and is the rally over? short positions on oil increase for the first time after saudi arabia backs away from a supply freeze. andre kosten at 8
3:00 am
:20 u.k. time. the cac is a little bit down. is in positive territory just a little bit. let's go to caroline hyde for the market open. caroline: good morning, hans. of stocks over the last couple weeks. for oil stocks, it was banks that let us know where. today, we thought caution in the market. thewas tracking lower after exclusive interview we had with the deputy crown prince of saudi arabia. bitre going to have a of investment companies being dragged down. metals are trading lower today. the dax opens flat. the cac 40 is down. let's look at the euro, up by
3:01 am
.1%. the dollar index is rising ever so slightly this morning after yellen's dovish last week. this put more pressure on the u.s. dollar. but down goes oil once again. we have considerable selling pressure once again and are up .9% on the bread contract. $28.29 is where we stand right now. we will not see a production takes part.s iran copper is down by 1%, the longest losing streak in two years. a seven-day selloff in copper? why? we have concerns ongoing regarding the the glut. interestingly, greek yields have come down today, despite concerns about greece's deal with the imf and ecb. once again, creditors are gathering today after the
3:02 am
documents relate from the imf. the melrose investment company, the u.k. investment company, is dropping out of buying the lighting unit of phillips. you have apollo and blackstone analyzing this unit, but we could see melrose saying they don't feel the data is secure enough. ryanair is up .4%. it could fall as much as 15%. orange is not to buy bouygues. look for the entire french telecom sector to be dragged down because of this. intothat fits very neatly the sector story we are to take the two. -- we are dictated to. one, is the energy story and the other is the telco story. caroline, materials are a little bit higher. health care is being rotated back in too.
3:03 am
down at the bottom, we have the french stocks and the telco story doing the damage to the wheel this morning. as well,nsurprising given the interview we have done here and how that has affected the energy market. we are seeing some movement there, but not a great deal. it really is the telcos, hans, that are taking a beating right now. that is why the european industries are opening a little bit flatter, with the cac opening softer than most. hans: i think on the oil story it is more driven by fundamentals. oil prices have fallen again. will these major oil producers agree to an output freeze? saudi arabia said they would only cut their output if, and that is a big "if," if iran follows suit. let's get more from our middle east editor. elliott, i suppose we could call this "managing expectations" ahead of a meeting to this
3:04 am
month. accurate analysis? elliott: yes, i think that is right. saudi arabia said they would only agrees to freeze output if everyone else does the same. i suppose hearing it from the , from the mouth of the deputy crown prince, means it will come to be. the said it really is maintained they will love freeze output, they will keep boosting output to reclaim market shares they lost when they were under sanctions. interestingly enough, the saudi's said that not only will they not freeze output unless the iranians and everybody else agrees to do so, they said that if others increased output, they would do likewise. that would put more into the market and potentially, push prices lower. that is another reason why we are seeing that pressure on oil prices, on friday, and also on
3:05 am
monday's trade. guy: elliott, this is along the same lines as hans' question. we have the story running this morning that the saudi's will be in the bond market. that strikes me again, as being another kind of piece of maneuvering in advance of that meeting in a doug. we are going to let the bond market take the burden. saudi arabia has been fighting the fire of their oil prices on a number of fronts. up until now, it has been draining its foreign reserves. it has been issuing debt in local markets as well. we saw an interview with the minister. they say they are planning their firzsst international bond issue and this could come as early as september. they are looking at raising $10 billion after this debt offering
3:06 am
has been made. it will then look to a two to year program. the minister said, we don't need this money right now. it is for the future when we go to the markets and we really need the money. investors and financial institutions already will us. they're looking to get some track record with the market so it will be easier to raise that money when the time comes. guy: elliott, thank you very much indeed. let me take you back to the telecommunications story ripping through the french sector. it is a discussions running the fact that orange is not going buynot going to bouygues. off 14%. 5%-6%.is down by
3:07 am
so, some fairly aggressive selling coming out of the french telco sector. we have been talking about this for so long, consolidation within the french telco sector. a reorganization. this is what needs to happen in europe, but it is not happening. why? >> the fed is always a problem. we know friends generally needs a lot of restructuring and reorganization. it is quite hard to see how much of an acquisition is taking place within the french economy. to me, the obvious play in europe is deutsche telekom. it is a high dividend deal and it is secure. all of the things one wants from
3:08 am
a telecom company, deutsche telekom are doing. hans: i guess the counter argument to jumping into these markets is -- money is basically free right now. you look at what corporate are able to raise money at, and they are at historic lows. why not expect more from the mma space because money is so cheap? >> in principle i expect we should see more mergers and acquisitions. i wear if merger and acquisition financialis due with territory. the overlay with that is, how much politics is there that will constrain prudent business driven merger and acquisition activity? and, take the united states, which has been an open market where a monet been highly successful -- it has driven value. in europe, the con strengthen controls of mma activity are so much greater.
3:09 am
-- the constraints and controls of mma activity are so much greater. .uy: james, thank you speakt, we will exclusively to the ceo of russia's largest bank. we will ask them what is to come for his bank, the russian economy and of course, the price of oil. all of that next here on "on the move."
3:10 am
3:11 am
3:12 am
guy: welcome back. you are watching "on the move." i want to talk to you about what is happening with the french telco sector. basically, what you are looking at here is orange walking away from bouygues. reaction youheer are looking at across the french sector. arege, iliad, and bouygues all trading lower. numericable is down 16%. everything is being sold in reaction to this decision. we will have more as we work our way through the morning. we will give you the latest on what will happen next. in the meantime, i will take you and get you caught up with everything else. here we have the bloomberg first world ms.. kumutha: saudi arabia is running its biggest economic shakeup since the founding of the kingdom. said therown prince
3:13 am
measures, including more taxes and accelerated subsidy costs, would raise the next to $100 billion a year by 2020. the country aims to spread the burden of lower oil prices among its population. files relate from a panama law firm that creates shell companies. this shows the politicians, criminals, and celebrities worldwide have used banks and shadow companies to hide their finances. that is according to a series of reports according to the international consortium. billion inshows $2 transactions involving people and companies allegedly tied to russian president putin. japanese companies have cut their forecast for inflation for the next five years that indicates even after adopting a negative rate policy, the bank of japan is struggling
3:14 am
to persuade businesses that sustained price gains will take hold. ofpanies project 1.2% inflation at this time in five years, down from 1.4% estimated in december. david cameron has denied that the u.k. referendum on european union membership is splitting his government. this comes after the culture secretary argued that the increase in britain's minimum wage would push up immigration and leave th unless the countryt the eu. stories ont more .erg with top guy: ways to come for russia's second-biggest bank? we are joined now by vtb's ceo, andrey kostin.
3:15 am
now with thing to be a good time to privatize your institution. off the flooris and we have seen some stabilization in the russian economy. now would seem to be a good time. is it or is it not? andrey: i think there are two main reasons the government is putting forward this idea. first, over the last couple years, particularly due to 1% crisis and the sanctions, of the russian economy belongs to the state. it is most important for the government to show the but they are still in control. they want to play a more important role in the russian economy. second, the russian economy needs some cash. they plan to raise some money for the budget, which of course is losing because of the low oil prices. i agree with you. the situation is quite
3:16 am
difficult. the russian oil company sale could be a good sale. the domestic demand for this kind of effort is obvious. it would not be very difficult to sell. as for as the large companies, i think that is a more difficult question. both companies are under sanctions. guy: who would be an obvious buyer for a stake in vtb? andrey: we are mosre focused now on domestic consumers. like private companies. guy: is there a discussion to be held? andrey: the government is in the process of selecting the agent for this job. the result will be announced today and tomorrow. will have to do this.
3:17 am
of course, the bank management will be supporting this. at the moment, we are in the beginning of this process. it is very hard to say how and when it will take place, even this year or next year. do notely, sanctions help very much. i think it will be the most privatization since 2007. hans: what you are describing to me is the government is committed to privatization. the same time, it might not be the best time to sell. you are basically telling investors, you are telling us, that the bank is prepared to leave money on the table. is that the notion? r investors,
3:18 am
we stubbly for example, the stocks of vtb are very much undervalued. even when sanctions are removed, they will be substantial growth in vtb. you definitely should be some interest. but as i say, there is also some interest on part of the russian investors, institutional investors. they believe the stock will grow, but i accept that because of the minority stake, investors can only expect the growth. that is the only reason why investors are investing. they expect a growth of the price of assets. the situation is not very favorable, but we will see. we are open-minded. if it does not happen this year, we will try maybe later. we will see.
3:19 am
we are very cautious and how we approach this. we are not saying we will privatize next month, or even this year. that so, it is safe to say if the price is not right, you are willing to hold out until there is clarity on sanctions, or maybe a bigger rebound in oil prices? the government has accepted that the prices might be quite low. they have to consider -- and they almost this -- the government should decide whether to sell at this level of prices or to wait longer. guy: can i get your reaction to the story rippling around the world this morning relating to this pandemonium with the legal firm? it includes putin. he is involved with hiding money. will that make the regulatory environment even more difficult for you? mr.ey: nobody said putin's was involved.
3:20 am
his name was not registered. what is wrong about this? i have got many comments on this. first of all, russia has no offshore zones. in britain, america, europe, they do have those. we have nothing to do with those offshore accounts. we don't have offshore zones. secondly, yes. russian business has been using offshore since the russian economy started inthe 1990's for a number of reasons. a russian businessman felt it was more secure to have assets offshore. and for tax reasons as well. the three largest investors in russia -- countries like cyprus -- why? because it is russian money coming back from offshore zones back to russia. the russian government has now announced the problem of the
3:21 am
authorization. that means they want amnesty announced. the people who declare now their assets, they are not even subject to the money they earned prior. by people have to register january 1, 2016, their offshore companies and will start to play taxes only in 2017 for this. the government is trying to bring money back. what it is legal for russian companies in russian people to have offshore business. i think most of the russian large companies registered offshore. guy: so, anybody in russia who as they offshore account is breaking the law, yeah? andrey: no, definitely not against the law. it relates to russia, to the
3:22 am
ukraine. i have to say, i never read any thing which related to mr. putin directly. he was not involved. and the fact that his daughter was celebrating a wedding in the ski resort, which is actually not expensive and used for weddings every week for dozens of people in saint petersburg, i don't know how it can relate putin to any offshore businesses. for my english. guy: we will apologize for the english. [laughter] but back to my original question. i appreciate what you just told me. i suspect many people in russia will hold a similar view, but nevertheless, it once again casts a spotlight on russia,
3:23 am
russian finances, what is going on, and whether or not there is a level of exposure. andrey: the money is becoming more transparent all around the world. russia is very much in line with this. russian banks abroad are subject to the same procedures as any other bank. trend ands a general russia is joining all of the trends. the ecb rules and we are no exclusion. the territory is not within russian. it should be treated with the legal basis. russian people would pay the same tax on offshore businesses and on domestic as well. that is a 30% flat for individual and 35% for the company hundred is to offer businesses of russian companies and russian people. hans: again mr. kostin, you are not painting an overly
3:24 am
optimistic view to invest and buy stake in vtb bank. what is your advice to them? it seems to me you are clearly hinting they should wait longer until some of these issues are clarified. andrey: we shall see for example, the management of any company is not responsible for the price of costs. it is responsible for the few months of the development and profitability. they are trying hard, even under the different and difficult environment to be successful in our business. as far as the prices are concerned, there are too many things that affect the prices of our stocks, including share politics. so, we shall see. ofare in a very early stage privatization process for vtb.
3:25 am
this will be quite a challenging privatization, but i think those who participate will have a good chance to benefit from this. i mabye will be more precise on this a little bit later when we meet one month later. guy: what is the discount on vtb stocks right now because of sanctions? of sanctions are removed there will be a 35% growth of stocks immediately. guy: that will be an immediate reaction? yes.y: i think so, there might be -- our partners, our business people in europe, are saying in july we might expect some softening of sanctions. they don't own the banking sector, but that does not depend on us. it is very hard for us to say.
3:26 am
there are sanctions on italy, f rance, and other countries in europe. european sanctions might be americanearlier than because they are now in the process of elections. guy: just to go back to the timing. government and you want to make this disposal goes easily and quickly, selling now would be a perfect time. will be saying, i will get a 25% pop on sanctions. andrey: we should test the appetite of investors. guy: andrey, we have to talk about oil as well. will ceo andrey kostin be staying with us. oil prices be
3:27 am
dragged back down? we will talk to andrey kostin about that story, next. ♪
3:28 am
3:29 am
thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish.
3:30 am
thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. hans: welcome back. -- guy: welcome back. the trading day in europe is shaping up. this is the story. look at the underperformance. it is not massive but significant. everything else is flat. the cac is down by .3%. let us go over to caroline hyde. caroline: check out the move on bouygues. the french telecom sector is killing the cac at the moment. this is the worst day for the bouygues.
3:31 am
orange failed. up to three months of intense negotiations. they cannot strike a deal. agree on some of the circumstances, the guarantees for some of the bouygues employees. it is not only killing the bouygues stock, it is also driving down orange and iliad. the worry is seeking consolidation for the four player sector. everyone else in europe has three players. working inon is not the french telecom market. check out that industry group and it is your worst performer on the stoxx 600 today. we continue to see the oil market being pulled lower by the exclusive interview we had with the deputy crown prince of saudi arabia. unless iran cuts its production,
3:32 am
we are not going to be concerned. the supply issues will continue. the downward trend in oil companies. oil and gas in general falling again. -- there should -- there could be concerns about a deal having to do with the south african regulator competition commission. between sab miller. guy: talking about the french story. it is eye watering in terms of the numbers being posted by some of these stocks. i want to check in on oil which is caroline says is moving in reaction in part to the interview bloomberg did with the saudi crown prince. brent trading down by 1.2%.
3:33 am
essentially what is happening here is saudi arabia is think it freezely join an output if iran does that. meanwhile, russia's oil production has expanded to a post soviet high. a number from march. i want to show you as well the gm function on bloomberg. taking you to what is happening on the forex line. the russian ruble is falling unsurprisingly against the u.s. dollar. down by 1.9%. the reason for that -- we back to what is happening with the oil story. andrey kostin is still with us. goes andsia goes, oil where oil goes, russia goes. oil has rallied a little bit but looks like it is beginning to stall. it is all premised on what the saudi's will do and now they are beginning to get cold feet on that as well. andrey: russia is definitely
3:34 am
suffering from the lower oil prices. negativeear we had a gdp growth of 3.8%, this year we expect between negative one percent to negative one part -- -1.5%. but having said this, of course russia is a big oil producer. interested inch the stabilization of oil prices. theexperts are seeing average oil price will be $48. the presumption is that it will be $30. we are looking forward to the meeting in april. be very cautiously optimistic on this. should be interested in the stabilization of oil prices. we see what is happening with sovereign oil funds in the gulf. they are all suffering. investmentess
3:35 am
opportunities creating problems for the global economy. recently i heard how the prime minister of the republic of georgia who is not producing oil saying they are suffering because there are no investors anymore from the oil-rich countries. i would be cautiously optimistic that a certain agreement might be reached in april during the meeting. the with the position of the saudi's and iran and they do not go very well together their positions. hans: what you're saying is russia has the capacity to absorb losses and tolerate the pain. you think russia's capacity is greater than some of the other middle east asked orders --
3:36 am
middle east exporters? years, our many experts, our government officials were saying that russia should change the structure of the economy. oil we should remove these needles and we should be more diversified. i think the reasonable oil prices are good for the russian economy. $40-$50 -- the situation is manageable. from this point of view, there is a certain positive effect on the russian economy. i think russian economic growth starting next year will be sustainable even if the oil price does not increase higher than $50 a barrel. said 25% is what you expect to see the stock pop if sanctions are lifted. andrey: it is hard to say.
3:37 am
everything in russia at the moment relates to oil. if the oil prices are high, russia is living good. from this point of view, it is important. but i don't think that at the be quite can still successful if oil prices stabilize at the level of $50 a barrel. guy: how inefficient is the oil industry in russia at the moment? russia is pumping at post soviet highs. to guys in the oil industry, i hear that the russia crews are not that efficient. isn't the game now for russia to try to prove the productivity. looking at how the u.s. is improving technology.
3:38 am
isn't that what russia needs to invest in now? andrey: russian people involved in oil production are focusing on being more efficient. more so than in the middle east. the price of extracting oil today is relatively cheap in russia. situation is not behind us. we are entering a new era where we have to spend more money on the exploration and development of the new foil -- new field which will be much more expensive. from this point of view, if you take these expenditures which russian companies should make investment in the development and of course the price will be much higher. from this point of view sanctions also create problems because there is sanctions on the technology and so forth. the question of
3:39 am
productivity and more efficient production is quite important. at the moment, i do believe them. existing production is quite efficient. guy: what needs to happen next to put the oil industry on a more stable footing? you talk about expensive stuff coming down the pipe and russia will have to deal with it. if we cap out at $50 come at the long-term economics, does it stack up for you? we need is see more acceleration in the russian economy for non-oil income? people have talked about this for a long time. when does the ruble drop about what needs to happen? andrey: on one hand i agree with you. even in the oil industry i think there should be a move toward a
3:40 am
-- as it has to do with production and refinery. we are selling to much crude oil at the moment. we're also talking about diversification of the russian economy. over the last year particularly, certain industries like -- because of import substitution and sanctions. to make a structural change, you need money in many cases. to need more money, you need more investors. we have a problem now with investment in russia. when you look at investment in russia, there is a good quarter. you did well. from fort withdraws
3:41 am
the month of march it was down some 90 million. moneys flowing out of russia. is this smart money or are they like potential investors leaving money on the table? capital flight has increased substantially in russia showing any companies are leaving money inside russia and are ready to invest. if you look at the emerging lessts in general there is interest on the part of western investors in the emerging markets under was three years ago. that is one of the tasks for the russian government. to improve the russian climate -- the investment -- the climate investment in russia. andrey kostin. saudi arabia's plan to tackle its chronic housing shortage. more from another bloomberg
3:42 am
exclusive interview. that is next year on "on the move." ♪
3:43 am
3:44 am
guy: welcome back. you arewatching open -- watching "on the move. so it is fascinating to see what is happening in the telco sector. what is happening is orange will not be buying bouygues. is suffering. it
3:45 am
it will not see the consolidation. potentially bad for iliad. not directly involved in this that the stock is getting pummeled this morning. the market is saying that this is bad for everyone but orange. orange is suffering but not his touches everyone else. as everyone else. it is interesting to see where the market thinks this is going. the market is trading down. peersparison with oranges , you can see where the market is closing. if the orangeknow will go on the hunt for something else are now. you may see some of the other a little bit.pop it is surprising to me that orange is declining the least of those. we will see how it plays out. when of the comments we heard earlier about how he thinks deutsche telekom has a huge
3:46 am
target on its bank -- on its back. there are a lot of bankers wondering where to convince orange to go next. guy: we will talk about that later on. one of the stories that will run through the morning. here is the bloomberg business flash. u.k. business secretary has refused to rule out a temporary nationalization of tata steel operations. javid stressed he does not see nationalization as the answer and he is confident he can buy -- find a buyer. >> i don't think nationalization is the solution to this. it also would be political. i do feel for a lot of reasons after talking to tata and others that there will be enough time to find the right buyer working with the government and able to
3:47 am
take this forward. kumatha: orange has abandoned its attempt to buy the phone business of bouygues. phoneies the french industry of a consolidation that would have eased competition in one of europe's toughest market. social guarantees for its employees and a level at stake in orange. shares in both companies are trading lower this morning. goldman sachs says it is time to sell asian currencies after the best monthly rally in more than seven years. strategist who predicted this year's emerging market recovery says currencies will resume the decline with further easing in china and japan rate a gauge of 10 currencies rose 3% in march. hans: we have some exclusive sound for you next now that saudi arabia is facing a chronic housing shortage and will need to be more -- build more than a
3:48 am
million homes. bloomberg spoke with the housing minister on how it will address the issue. >> we developed something called how's it -- saudi housing segmentation. market based on this analysis. the private sector was developing a house and finding a beneficiary of it. we are changing this methodology given the market. currently, our target is not to build the one million for five years but to initiate a direction back to homeownership with the citizen. where the citizen within one what isknows what he -- required from him and what is
3:49 am
required from the private sector to develop. so he knows he can own a home in 2-4 years. the kickoff of this development starts now and within five years we should finish the start up of that. some of the programs will take 2-3 years so we think within 7-8 years we will be able to meet the demand. guy: housing shortage. a familiar theme. a busy week ahead. taking a look inside central-bank policy. financial policy committee. what can we expect. we will discuss that next. ♪
3:50 am
3:51 am
3:52 am
guy: welcome back. let us take a quick look at greek stocks. they open later than the rest of europe. 20 minutes ago. the composite shared down almost 2%. the bank index is down almost 5%. we spent a lot of time looking at that when we were talking about the bailout over the summer. those are the stronger reactions. a good indication that not all is well in athens. there is a challenge between getting the government on the page with its most natural allies, the imf. how does tsipras mentor bridges with christine lagarde.
3:53 am
came close torde suggesting that athens was behind the leak of the documents that came out through wikileaks. i suspect we will be heading back to athens sometime this spring or summer. guy: suntan lotion already pact. fascinating. what is interesting is the story with thet the story migration crisis were germany and greece appeared to be allied at certain levels. then the next story, what is happening with the financial situation and it seems that the event iran does not overlap. i cannot believe that is not -- it seems that the venn diagram is not overlapping. they've got to be linked. hans: if angela merkel goes to the parliament and asks for space for another million refugees in germany -- that is
3:54 am
an impossible vote. if you think she can go to the bundestag and ask for additional money to write down the imf or debt,down the outstanding that is a lot easier political fix. strategistour ethics richard jones on board. strategistet our fx on board, richard jones. it certainly brings this issue of greece and the relationship with the eu and takes us back to last year. i think this is an issue that has been on the back burner for some investors. looks like it will become front and center again. we remember that the volatility it engendered last year. guy: how would you position -- you have the brexit vote coming up, you have greece potential he
3:55 am
getting back on the agenda. a lot of economists are saying we need to have another crisis because this needs to be resolved. two big issues this summer to affect the pound and the euro. have you get ready for that? richard: the pound sterling is back up against eight pence. we have seen a decent run higher. we know why. for the euro. does this become a trade were traders are looking to fade given the uncertainty greece will engender? it was complicated enough last year. now we have the migrant crisis making it more complicated. traders may see this as an opportunity to fade the euro value. -- : richard: i don't think that is front and center yet but i think
3:56 am
it will be a theme that will start to take hold. we still have two and a half months of campaigning before the vote on britain's place in the eu. if greece becomes a front and center issue come it will become part of the dialogue in the brexit space. guy: has the dollar rally still got legs? you have the big man crushing inflation. we are 57 months into this rally. are we done? richard: what we have seen with the dollar weakening of late -- we are seeing the last vestiges of what traders thought would be the big d cuffing of monetary policy. a fed that is more dovish. and in ecb that is perhaps more dovish. once that unwind plays itself out and we see the greek issues becoming more front and center,
3:57 am
the dollar could resume its leg higher against the euro. guy: richard jones. it fords and i, that is "on the move. so
3:58 am
3:59 am
4:00 am
cook's will berlin blink on debt relief for greece? anothereading for summer of crisis? ? a shortl rally over position in oil increase. saudi arabia backs away. who is afraid of a brexit? about 75% of britons cfos are. we will talk with the referendum means for the city of london. ♪